Counterpoint Predicts Global Smartphone Average Selling Price to Reach $412 in 2029

Counterpoint's latest Market Outlook Tracker report delivers a major conclusion: the global average selling price (ASP) of smartphones will soar to $412 in 2029! Behind this figure lies a five-year trajectory of "value upgrading" in the mobile phone market—from $357 in 2024, to $370 in 2025, and then to $412 in 2029, with a steady compound annual growth rate of 3%, signaling the industry's complete departure from the era of extensive growth through "price-for-volume" strategies!

Some may wonder: why are phones getting more and more expensive? Three core logics reveal the truth behind price increases:

1. The unstoppable wave of premiumization: From the strong comeback of Huawei's Mate and Pura series with their self-developed chips and imaging technologies, to the continued surge in Apple's iPhone Pro's global market share in the high-end segment, and the OPPO Find X and vivo X series constantly breaking through the ceiling of imaging and screen technology, the high-end strategies of leading manufacturers have formed a synergy. The Chinese market, in particular, is not only the main consumer base for high-end phones but has also become the core engine for global ASP growth, directly driving up the overall average price.

2. Technological innovation supports premium pricing: 5G is no longer exclusive to high-end phones; now even budget phones can be equipped with 5G networks as standard. More importantly, advanced features are being rolled out to mid-range phones—generative AI voice assistants, full-focal-length imaging systems, and 120Hz high refresh rate screens—previously "flagship configurations"—are now "standard selling points" for mid-range models. These innovations come at a significant cost; generative AI-related components alone can increase the material cost of a phone by $40-60. Consumers are paying for a better experience, further driving up the average selling price.

3. Foldable screens as an "invisible price increase driver": Although foldable phones currently account for less than 2% of global shipments, their high ASP (Average Selling Price) is already influencing the industry's pricing structure. More importantly, the report explicitly mentions that Apple is expected to launch a foldable phone by the end of 2026. According to industry insiders, this model may feature a 2nm chip and a crease-free screen, with a price potentially reaching $2,000. Apple's entry will not only ignite the overall foldable screen market but may also reshape industry technology and pricing benchmarks, further pushing up the overall ASP.

Besides the average selling price, there's another key signal in the market: ASP growth is outpacing shipment volume! Data shows that global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, while ASP (Average Selling Price) growth will reach 3.5%. This "price increase with stable volume" pattern will drive market revenue growth of nearly 6% in 2025. Looking further ahead, the compound annual growth rate of market revenue from 2025 to 2029 will reach 5%, with global smartphone market revenue exceeding $564 billion by 2029!

Given this market trend, what are your thoughts? Will you prioritize high-end flagship phones in the future, or wait for foldable screens to become cheaper? Will Apple's foldable screen truly become a "catalyst" for price increases in the industry?